This awards season has probably been the most difficult to predict in years, with no clear frontrunners to point to.
Will the path to the Oscars look clearer once tomorrow’s show ends? Probably not, since there isn’t any actual collusion between HFPA members and Academy members. Let’s not forget, the Globes are noticeable for always trying to get big ratings with unexpected and weird choices for nominees and winners (hence ‘The Greatest Showman’ being nominated in several categories).
Today, I predict who ‘Will Win’ and a ‘Potential Upset’ for the main categories on the film side of the awards. NOTE: This in no way reflects my own personal opinion of the films’ quality.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: ‘The Shape of Water’, ‘The Post’, ‘Dunkirk’, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’, ‘Call Me By Your Name’
Will Win: ‘The Shape of Water’
Guillermo Del Toro’s new fantasy film seems to have enchanted almost every critic in Hollywood, earning already several awards in other ceremonies. Look for this one to be the frontrunner tomorrow, especially since it’s also the film with the most nominations of the night, so probably a lot of the voters already had it as their favorite film.
Potential Upset: The Post
Never count out a Steven Spielberg film, especially if it stars Golden Globe favorites Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks, and deals with the very timely topics of the press vs the media, and don’t forget the HFPA is made up of foreign press, so this film must hit right at home with them.
Best Picture – Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Lady Bird
Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut seemingly came out of nowhere a few months ago to conquer the hearts of a lot of voters, with many already saying it’s one of the best films of the year. The film is excellent, and I would be surprised if it doesn’t end up with this award by the end of the night, even if I think ‘I, Tonya’ deserves to win.
Potential Upset: Get Out
Get Out became a pop culture phenomenon when it came out, and a win might actually make a lot of people happy since many have actually seen it. What works against it? That it came out very early in the year, which has made it lose some momentum, and that it’s actually a horror film, not a comedy or musical.
Nominees: Guillermo Del Toro, Christopher Nolan, Steven Spielberg, Martin McDonagh, Ridley Scott
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Del Toro’s highly stylized direction has deserved a win for several years, so voters might feel like he is long overdue (and he is). They might want to give this award to someone else if this wins Best Picture to be more democratic, but I still think this one is a safe bet.
Potential Upset: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
There’s no denying the man’s talent, and with Dunkirk, he showcased it tremendously, so the HFPA might not want to overlook that.
Best Actor – Drama
Nominees: Gary Oldman, Timothee Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington
Will Win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
It’s surprising that Oldman has never received one before, especially considering all the great roles he has had throughout the years. As Winston Churchill, he transformed himself, and I think this could be the role that earns him those well-deserved trophies. However, let’s not forget Oldman’s distasteful comments about the HFPA a few years ago, so if voters are feeling some kind of vendetta, they could use this opportunity to award someone else.
Potential Upset: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
It’s very possible that by the end of the show we have Chalamet as the winner, as he has been emerging as a force to be reckoned with lately. He’s a young and rising star in an incredible performance, so he certainly deserves it too.
Best Actress – Drama
Nominees: Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep, Jessica Chastain, Michelle Williams
Will Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
It would be criminal not to award McDormand’s multi-layered performance, one of the finest ones I’ve seen in a long time. She’s the frontrunner by just a hair: the race is very close between McDormand, Hawkins and Streep.
Potential Upset: Meryl Streep (The Post)
While I believe Hawkins has more of a chance at the Oscars, Streep has the upper-hand here as she usually gets a lot of love from the HFPA and is almost always nominated, so they might see this as an opportunity to reward her.
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: James Franco, Daniel Kaluuya, Hugh Jackman, Steve Carrell, Ansel Elgort
Will Win: James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Franco’s turn as Tommy Wiseau is both hilarious and thought-provoking. He managed to make someone who almost seemed like a caricature and made him more human with an incredible portrayal that proves to be an instant classic, something the Golden Globes will surely want to acknowledge, especially as they have favored the character actor before.
Potential Upset: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
As mentioned before, Get Out was a huge success critically,and a lot of the acclaim was also directed towards Daniel Kaluuya, who gave a very subtle but great performance in it. Depending on how much they liked the movie, the HFPA might want to give Get Out the spotlight with this win.
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie, Judi Dench, Emma Stone, Helen Mirren
Will Win: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Saoirse Ronan gave life to a very relatable character with an incredible performance that will surely define her career in a very-liked movie, so this one is also a very sure bet.
Potential Upset: Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
However, don’t count out Robbie’s incredible performance as Tonya Harding, which is also getting a lot of praise and is my personal favorite to win.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe, Christopher Plummer, Sam Rockwell, Armie Hammer, Richard Jenkins
Will Win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Dafoe has been getting a lot of praise for his portrayal as motel manager Bobby Hicks in Sean Baker’s The Florida Project. Dafoe has been winning almost every single award leading up to this one, and it’s the best bet for the film to get an award.
Potential Upset: Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World)
The jury’s still out on whether Plummer can emerge as the frontrunner in this category, but it’s certainly the most talked about one. Plummer already won in 2011 for Beginners, but it could prove to be too juicy not to give him the award given all the drama behind it involving Kevin Spacey.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Allison Janney, Laurie Metcalf, Octavia Spencer, Mary J Blige, Hong Chau
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Metcalf gives a stunning portrayal as a struggling mother in Lady Bird that is easily on of the best of the year. Also, her incredible pedigree in theater is also very impressive, so she is the current favorite.
Potential Upset: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Janney also portrayed a mother, albeit a very different one, incredibly well. Voters will definitely know her for her TV work on the West Wing and Mom, so she could prove to be popular with them.
Nominees: Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, The Post, Shape of Water, Molly’s Game
Will Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Gerwig’s impressive writing talent was on incredible display on Lady Bird, and can’t possibly be overlooked.
Potential Upset: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
While I had to decide between Molly’s Game and this one, I ultimately chose Three Billboards for the many other nominations it has, that Aaron Sorkin’s Molly’s Game doesn’t, giving it the slight upper-hand.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Coco, The Breadwinner, The Boss Baby, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent
Will Win: Coco
The Golden Globes give this award almost every time to Pixar when it’s in competition, and this year expect it to be no different, especially considering it deserves it 100%.
Potential Upset: The Breadwinner
While unlikely, this animated film has been gaining some traction as of late, so it could be a surprise winner.
The Golden Globes will air on NBC Sunday, January 7th at 5pm PST.