BOX OFFICE PROJECTIONS: CAN ‘CRAZY RICH ASIANS’ CHALLENGE HOLDOVER ‘THE MEG’?

After surprising almost everyone in Hollywood with its big opening, ‘The Meg’ will now compete in its second weekend with fellow Warner Bros. film, ‘Crazy Rich Asians’, which is opening on a Wednesday.

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Warner has positioned ‘Crazy Rich Asians‘ in its marketing as a historic film for asian-american representation in film, boasting almost an exclusive Asian cast and behind-the-scenes talent, something very unusual for this type of film.

It also holds a stellar 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. It does face a bit of an uphill battle, though. First of all, this weekend of August has been usually dormant for the past years, and, while ‘The Meg’ managed to blow expectations out of the water, that might’ve been some moviegoers’ last moviegoing experience of the summer. Furthermore, the romantic comedy sub-genre has been slowly dying at the box office, now usually relegated to streaming. The cast is also not very recognizable with the possible exception of Michelle Yeoh.

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Tracking has positioned it at a possible $30M at the 5-day weekend, which would mean roughly $19M for the Fri-Sun weekend. That’s a solid but not great start, since it would line its opening up with other comedy misfires of the year like Game Night and Blockers (both of which also boasted very strong reviews). There is a feeling that it could overperform once word-of-mouth kicks in later in the week, and Warner Bros. is hoping the film has enough legs to play throughout the month and even into November, which is very possible.

Look for ‘The Meg’ to land in second place with about $20M, dropping about 54%. That’s a strong hold for the monster movie with mostly mediocre reviews, which means audience reactions have been favorable.

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The weekend’s other new opener, ‘Mile 22‘, is the 4th (!) collaboration between director Peter Berg and star Mark Wahlberg. The actioner is expected to land in the high-teens with an estimated $17M, hoping it can catch some box office luck overseas. While the director-star duo initially started great with Lone Survivor, the profits have been on decline since then, with the last one, Patriots Day, earning about $50M globally with a $45M cost, and failed to attract any awards nominations. Can this film turn things around for them?


Check back for updates with Box Office Actuals at the end of the weekend.

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